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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://dspace.vgtu.lt/handle/1/3643

Title: Project portfolio risk identification and analysis, considering project risk interactions and using bayesian networks
Authors: Ghasemi, Foroogh
Mohammad Hossein Mahmoudi, Sari
Yousefi, Vahidreza
Falsafi, Reza
Tamošaitienė, Jolanta
Keywords: project portfolio risk
risk interactions
risk analysis
risk identification
Bayesian networks
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: MDPI AG
Citation: Ghasemi, F.; Sari, M. H. M.; Yousefi, V.; Falsafi, R.; Tamošaitienė, J. 2018. Project portfolio risk identification and analysis, considering project risk interactions and using bayesian networks, Sustainability 10(5): 1–23
Series/Report no.: 10;5
Abstract: An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN) methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.
URI: http://dspace.vgtu.lt/handle/1/3643
ISSN: 2071-1050
Appears in Collections:Moksliniai straipsniai / Research articles

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