VGTU talpykla >
Statybos fakultetas / Faculty of Civil Engineering >
Moksliniai straipsniai / Research articles >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://dspace.vgtu.lt/handle/1/3643
|
Title: | Project portfolio risk identification and analysis, considering project risk interactions and using bayesian networks |
Authors: | Ghasemi, Foroogh Mohammad Hossein Mahmoudi, Sari Yousefi, Vahidreza Falsafi, Reza Tamošaitienė, Jolanta |
Keywords: | project portfolio risk risk interactions risk analysis risk identification Bayesian networks |
Issue Date: | 2018 |
Publisher: | MDPI AG |
Citation: | Ghasemi, F.; Sari, M. H. M.; Yousefi, V.; Falsafi, R.; Tamošaitienė, J. 2018. Project portfolio risk identification and analysis, considering project risk interactions and using bayesian networks, Sustainability 10(5): 1–23 |
Series/Report no.: | 10;5 |
Abstract: | An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However,
the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement
of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between
risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian
network (BN) methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first,
portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on
their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability
distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the
probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located
in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided
valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions. |
URI: | http://dspace.vgtu.lt/handle/1/3643 |
ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
Appears in Collections: | Moksliniai straipsniai / Research articles
|
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|